MLB Player Props & Best Bets for Today, April 5
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We had a great day Saturday with our MLB player props, as we climbed a strikeout ladder with Jesus Luzardo for a hefty profit.
The Easter Sunday slate brings even more opportunities, and we turn back to Yordan Alvarez after he also came through for us yesterday.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Sunday, April 5.
Best MLB player props today
Player PickOdds Yordan AlvarezOver 0.5 RBI+125 Kyle SchwarberOver 0.5 RBI-120 Cody BellingerOver 0.5 runs-105Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 RBI
Yes, it’s a repeat from yesterday. Except it’s at even better odds, and I’m not turning that down.
Not against a pitcher in Jacob Lopez, who ranked in the Bottom 5th percentile last season in chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate. In his first start this season, he walked five batters in four innings, which set up Atlanta’s hitters with run-scoring opportunities.
He’s now facing a Houston Astros team that has already drawn 50 walks this season. Alvarez drew four of them himself yesterday — and still managed to drive in a run in his only registered at-bat.
Alvarez is fourth in the bigs with a .462 ISO in the early season. Split against LHP, that number jumps to .571 in 18 plate appearances.
Plus-odds for an RBI from the guy sitting second in wRC+ and leading the league with a .604 xwOBA is a gift, and one I’ll happily accept.
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Space City Home Network, NBCS-California
Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 RBI
In just 20 plate appearances vs. RHP this season, Kyle Schwarber’s already crushed three bombs, driven in five runs, and drawn five walks.
He’s expected to have a strong day — so much so that three H/R/R carries -145 juice. That’s why I love getting his RBI prop at -120, especially in the thin air at Coors Field.
Against RHP so far this season, Schwarber is rocking a whopping .714 ISO and a 288 wRC+. His counterpart on Sunday, Tomoyuki Sugano, often pitches to contact and allowed 1.93 HR/9 last season.
While he looked decent in his opening start, he couldn’t get through five innings and still coughed up a dinger. He also posted an ERA that was half of his xERA and xFIP metrics.
This matchup sets up very well for Schwarber to drive in a run for the fifth straight game.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCS-Philadelphia, Rockies.TV
Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 runs
Cody Bellinger has crossed the plate in six of his eight games this season, in large part because he’s drawing walks at a rate of over 17% and posting a .361 xwOBA. Getting on base in front of Ben Rice and Giancarlo Stanton just raises the odds of coming around the bases.
The New York Yankees are facing RHP Chris Paddack, who primarily throws only a fastball and changeup to LHB. He got rocked in his first start this season, allowing eight earned and two HR in just 4 IP.
That won’t get the job done against the likes of Rice, whose ISO of .476 vs. RHP this season sits fifth in the majors. He and Stanton both rank in the Top 15 this season in wRC+ vs. RHP as well.
If Bellinger gets on base, one of them will bring him home—if he doesn’t go deep himself.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marlins. TV, YES
- Prop picks: 3-3, -0.27 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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