Why Gauff has the edge over Sabalenka heading into the Miami Open final

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Fans are in for a treat on Sunday when Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff meet in the Miami Open final.

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Sabalenka, who currently holds the title, is aiming to become just the fifth woman to win both Indian Wells and Miami in the same season. Having already secured Indian Wells earlier this month, she’s halfway there.

The American is looking for her first WTA 1000 trophy of the season and fourth overall. Their most recent meeting came at last year’s WTA Finals, where Sabalenka got the better of Gauff.

This will be their fourth final meeting, and former US Open finalist Greg Rusedski believes Gauff might have an edge this time around.

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Greg Rusedski shares his take on the 2026 Miami Open final

Speaking on ‘Off Court with Greg,’ he noted: “The crowd’s going to play a part because there’s an American in the final.

“They want to see an American win in Miami, and conditions are slower in Miami than they are in Indian Wells, which favours Coco to defend more.

“When Coco has won her majors, who has she beaten? Sabalenka on both occasions, the US Open and at Roland Garros.

“So this is going to be a cracking final, and one thing I’d love to see is Coco having a good serving performance.

“If she does that, maybe this is the catalyst where everything falls into place, and the serve starts functioning, because that is the big question mark.

“And we know Sabalenka in finals, she struggles, she gets nervous, she gets tight, she feels expectations. So Sabalenka is the favourite, but she doesn’t always like being the favourite in the final.”

Recapping Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka’s 2025 rivalry

Gauff and Sabalenka have squared off a dozen times on the WTA Tour, including two finals last year.

Their first final in 2025 was at the Madrid Open, where Sabalenka won in straight sets.

Later in the clay season, they met again in the Roland Garros final, where Gauff came out on top to claim her second Grand Slam title.

Their head-to-head record currently stands at 6-6, and Saturday’s winner will take the lead for the first time.

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