A Word’s Eye View: India’s Precocious Journey Through Growth And Change

India’s developmental arc has been described in myriad ways, but it takes two esteemed economists to call it “precocious”. It is an interesting label for India’s economic history since Independence. If used in the context of a child who shows achievement much earlier than usual, it can be seen in a positive light. That is not necessarily so when the word is used to describe things happening too early, such as puberty, for example.

Plumbing through over 600 pages of the book, many of them filled with charts, it is clear that the authors, Devesh Kapur and Arvind Subramanian, have chosen their words with great care to reflect both aspects. That is not surprising given their credentials.

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Devesh Kapur is the Starr Foundation Professor of South Asia Studies at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Earlier, he was the Frederick Danziger Associate Professor of Government at Harvard University and the Madan Lal Sobti Professor for the Study of Contemporary India at the University of Pennsylvania. Arvind Subramanian is Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, and former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India. He has previously worked at the International Monetary Fund and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and taught at Ashoka, Brown, Harvard and Johns Hopkins universities. Both have written several highly acclaimed books earlier.

What is precocious about India’s developmental experience? “The Indian development experiment was arguably the most unique and the most difficult because it attempted four major transformations simultaneously—forging a nation, building a State, creating a market and transforming society—at one of the largest spatial and population scales. Furthermore, all these transformations were to be achieved through universal franchise-based democratic politics ab initio,” the authors say.

There is no comparison for this. In the western democracies – Europe, the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand - economic and political success was achieved over several centuries. As the societies prospered, the electoral franchise was gradually extended. In East Asia, economic development was compressed in the post-Second World War era — co-terminus with India’s journey — while political development and democratisation occurred after a certain level of economic success had been achieved. China, of course, has prospered but continues to be a Communist Party dictatorship.

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The authors point out that the socialist planning era was particularly poor in achieving the outcomes it was supposed to achieve. By failing to implement land reforms, transform agriculture, and throttling private industry, it ensured that poverty remained endemic. Ironically, the authors point out that it was during the neoliberal era that the State began providing more public goods, building a social safety net via rapid growth-generated resources for investments in education and health, and becoming more efficient at building infrastructure and implementing programmes and policies at scale. The socialist state was an inefficient state capitalist; the neoliberal state became a public goods provider and a social welfare state, providing social protections to a considerably greater extent, as well as a more effective implementation state.

The book points out that some of the bad habits acquired during the planning era still continue. India continues to support inefficient state enterprises, rules and regulations remain mind-numbingly complex, and the attitude of Mai-Baap Sarkar remains.

The astonishing part is that this happens even as the Indian State has remained self-reflecting. The authors say, On almost every subject of importance, the broader State, encompassing not just the government but government-appointed watchdogs, ad hoc committees, parliamentary committees and experts from within and without, undertook extensive analysis to understand the state of play, what had gone wrong and how it could be fixed. The problem is that, despite oodles of self-reflection, the Indian State has never learnt to self-correct.

Looking ahead, rather than offering facile policy alternatives, the authors identify four major disruptors that could undermine India's dream of becoming a developed nation by 2047.

The first is Geopolitics. With the post-World War II rules-based order breaking down, India will have to navigate turbulent waters.

The second disruptor is Technology, particularly AI, which is likely to severely adversely affect India’s software services export sector. Also, as deepfakes become harder to spot, they could threaten India’s democracy itself.

Third is Climate Change, with India being particularly vulnerable.

The fourth is Demography. India is already the world’s most populous country, and is likely to remain so for the rest of this century. The long-term political implications of a large number of young people with credentials but few skills that meet their rising aspirations are serious.

The book ends with a warning. “India’s real achievements of democracy, order, federalism and nation-building should not be squandered. Averting that tragedy is a matter of collective urgency. A modicum of success will allow a sixth of humanity—nearly a billion and a half aspirational and entrepreneurial Indians—to take up the important task of seizing and shaping that future.”

Book: A Sixth Of Humanity: Independent India's Development Odyssey

Author: Devesh Kapur and Arvind Subramanian

Publisher: HarperCollins India

Pages: 760

Price: Rs 1299

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