Buckeye Bracketology: Ohio State is a lock, but at what seed?
· Yahoo Sports
This will likely be the final installment of our Buckeye Bracketology series for the season. If Ohio State upsets Michigan in the Big Ten quarterfinal on Friday, maybe we'll come back and look in detail at the possibilities for the Buckeyes' seed line. For now, though, we'll look at where the resume stands now, and why it's firmly into this year's NCAA Tournament.
Yes, after the Big Ten Tournament win over Iowa, I can safely say that the Buckeyes will be in the NCAA Tournament. This resume was dicey all season, with no bad losses but no real superlative wins, either. It was a middling resume in a weak-but-not-awful bubble. The selection committee would have had to make some decisions about Ohio State. Do you take teams that at least won some big games, even if there are also some bad losses? How do you slot a bland resume in with those?
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Well, the Buckeyes put all those questions out of mind with a strong finish to the season. This resume had zero Quad 1 wins a month ago. Now it has four, with a 3-2 record in the last five Quad 1 games (plus the Northwestern win from earlier this year moving up to Quad 1). The early-season loss to Pitt is no longer at risk of falling to Quad 3. The UCLA win could move up from Quad 2 to Quad 1 if the Bruins upset Michigan State on Friday. There are no more chances at bad losses.
This resume is solid. No power conference team has ever been left out with a NET, KenPom, and SOS rating as high as Ohio State's. 12 losses is a lot (including a loss in the Big Ten Tournament, whatever round it happens in), but it's not too much for an at-large team nowadays, especially one with ten wins over Quads 1 and 2. When you compare this resume to other bubble teams, the Buckeyes are just better. Some (for example, Texas and Auburn) might have more Quad 1 wins, but they also have far fewer Quad 2 wins, plus worse losses.
All of this is why I say the Buckeyes are in. Even if we get maximum conference tournament chaos and bid thieves, the Buckeyes shouldn't have a problem. Miami (Oh) getting an at-large wouldn't bump Ohio State. Neither would Santa Clara. A three-bid Atlantic 10 won't hurt Ohio State. No. The Buckeyes are firmly locked into the tournament.
Which means now we just have to wonder about the seed line. When you look at the resumes, there's a pretty big jump in resume quality right around the middle of the eight line. Basically every team with a NET higher than Ohio State has a more impressive collection of win than the Buckeyes have, as do a few other teams in the 30s. As things stand now, the Buckeyes are probably looking at the nine line, maybe the ten if a few teams impress in their conference tournaments. This resume definitely looks more than strong enough to avoid the First Four, no matter what else happens the rest of the way.
That leaves us with one final question: how strong does this resume get if the Buckeyes beat Michigan? While that would be massive, there's still a pretty big gap between the resumes of teams currently looking at the seven line and where the Buckeyes are now. If Ohio State wants to get out of the 8/9 line and avoid playing a No. 1 seed in the second right, the Buckeyes might need to reach the Big Ten final. If they get that far, we'll definitely have a final post with a lot of nitty gritty to see where the Buckeyes land.
This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: Buckeye Bracketology: Ohio State is a lock, but at what seed?