The White Sox Could Exploit a Free Agent Market Inefficiency
· Yahoo Sports
The Chicago White Sox have an abundance of starting pitching. The jury is still out on whether or not it’s good starting pitching, but it’s an abundance nonetheless.
After signing right-hander Erick Fedde to a one-year deal, the White Sox appeared to be all set on the starting pitching front. They have a clear top five that entered spring training as the favorites to be in the rotation come Opening Day.
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And beyond that group, there’s plenty of depth in the prospect pipeline. Tanner McDougal and David Sandlin both have explosive stuff and can run a fastball up over 100 mph.
Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith won’t break camp with the team, but they may not be far behind if they’re successful early in the season. Both seem bound for a debut at some point in 2026.
And that’s truthfully just the tip of the iceberg.
So as I said, the White Sox do not have a pressing need for more starting pitching depth. But what organization is going to turn down more pitching? And what organization doesn’t want to continue raising its floor?
GM Chris Getz has said a number of times over the last few months that the White Sox’s goal in 2026 is to win as many games as possible while still providing runway for their young players to develop.
You have to give young players at-bats. You have to figure out who’s in your core. But you also have to win games to teach these players how to win. And quality starting pitching can help you do that.
It may not have been an area the White Sox wanted to force with a large free agent contract. But as we near Opening Day and multiple free agents remain unsigned, perhaps there’s a golden opportunity for the White Sox to add a high-floor starting pitching option at a discounted rate.
Two of my favorite free agent fits for the White Sox are still available:
Right-handed starters Lucas Giolito and Zach Littell.
Giolito is more than familiar with the city of Chicago and playing on the South Side. Moving on made sense when the White Sox were headed for a 100-loss season at the 2023 trade deadline. But maybe a reunion could be just as mutually beneficial.
After missing the entire 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery, Giolito bounced back and had plenty of success with the Boston Red Sox, posting a 10–4 record with a 3.41 ERA over 145 innings pitched. It was a rough start to the season for Giolito — during the first week of June, his ERA sat at 6.42 — but over his final 111.1 innings, he posted a 2.51 ERA, and the Red Sox went 14–5 over those 19 starts. A really strong finish to the year.
Still, some of the advanced metrics weren’t great. Giolito’s expected ERA was 5.06, and he ranked in just the 16th percentile in expected batting average allowed and the 22nd percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
I think a lot of contending teams are hesitant to give him the price tag he wants, especially with the gap between the impressive surface-level numbers and the underlying metrics. They want to see him prove it again before committing to a multi-year deal. And now that the market has stalled and spring training is underway, it’s going to be difficult for Giolito to find a comfortable fit.
With the White Sox, he’d be guaranteed a rotation spot and plenty of runway. He could live in a city he loves, play in a ballpark he knows, and if he’s productive on a one-year deal, he could easily get traded to a contender at the deadline and sign a significant contract next offseason.
And of course, the White Sox would be upgrading their pitching staff. Giolito is verifiably better than at least three of their current starting pitchers. He might even be their best starter the moment he signs. If there’s one thing that could hold the White Sox back from taking a large step forward in 2026, it’s the pitching staff stalling out. Grabbing someone like Giolito helps prevent that from happening.
The same logic applies to Zach Littell.
I’ve loved Littell as an option for the White Sox because he’s been incredibly productive as a starting pitcher for three consecutive seasons now, and he brings something new to this pitching staff with his command. Chicago has favored big arms with loud stuff, betting on its player development system and pitching lab to help control those arsenals, simplify deliveries, and extract maximum value. Littell would offer a nice change of pace.
He’d also be a particularly good fit because of his experience in the bullpen. Back in 2021, Littell was a highly productive relief pitcher for the San Francisco Giants. He’s been in a bullpen role as recently as 2023 with the Tampa Bay Rays. And for a White Sox organization loaded with pitching depth, if a young prospect forces the issue and requires an MLB opportunity, the White Sox could still extract value from Littell by moving him into a multi-inning relief role.
He, too, would have value on the trade market at the deadline should he repeat his career norms.
I’m not sure how realistic this is. I’d bet against it happening. But with every day that passes and Giolito and Littell remain unsigned, the market becomes more team-friendly.
And ultimately, the White Sox could find themselves jumping on an unforeseen opportunity to improve the Opening Day roster.